The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on June 11, and it will make history in many ways. Mexico take on South Africa in the World Cup 2026 opener, and this tournament marks the first instance of the World Cup being hosted by multiple nations since 2002. Mexico will be the only country to have hosted or co-hosted the event three times. The tournament also has expanded to 48 teams, the first expansion and format change since 1998. However, for Mexico, this World Cup seems less like a battle for a trophy and more about restoring the country’s soccer soul.
El Tri have turned back to Javier Aguirre to oversee the squad. This is his third stint as national team manager, and Mexico enter this World Cup as a former North American powerhouse looking to re-establish its standing as the top CONCACAF team. We’ll go over Mexico’s World Cup odds, their run of form leading up to the competition and how those betting on soccer should approach this team when things get going in June.
World Cup 2026 futures odds for Mexico (via FanDuel)
- To win the World Cup: +5500
- To reach the World Cup final: +2000
- To reach the semifinal: +850
- To reach the quarterfinal: +280
- To reach the Round of 16: -150
- To win Group A: -140
The North American joint bid officially won hosting rights the day before the 2018 World Cup started, and it looked to be a boost for Mexico, who escaped the proverbial “Group of Death.” They got a 1-0 win over Germany to open the competition and followed it up with a 2-1 win over Korea Republic, but that was the high point for El Tri. A 3-0 loss to Sweden didn’t cost them a knockout spot but they fell in the Round of 16 to Brazil, their seventh consecutive Round of 16 finish.
Things appear to have spiraled a bit since then. Gerardo Martino’s Gold Cup win in 2019 seems like a lifetime ago, and Mexico went through two more managers before finally settling on Aguirre in 2024. In the midst of this chaos, the team failed to get out of the group stage at the 2022 World Cup, something that seemed like a foregone conclusion given their history. A group stage exit in the 2024 Copa America was likely the last straw for the federation.
Restoring soccer dominance
The soccer rivalry between Mexico and the United States is well documented and for the most part, the rivalry was fairly one-sided. Mexico lead the all-time series 38-17-24 and had a 21-match unbeaten streak from 1937-1980 when the two teams played. However, the transformation which has taken place is hard to ignore, and re-shifting that dynamic might mean more to Mexico than a deep World Cup run.
FIFA started releasing world rankings in 1993 and for the most part, Mexico and USA were the top teams in CONCACAF consistently. However, the Americans have been the top CONCACAF team in the last five rankings. In the previous 28 rankings, Mexico held the top spot among CONCACAF teams 21 times. The Americans won the 2021 Gold Cup along with the CONCACAF Nations League in 2021, 2023 and 2024. And this shift goes beyond the results on the pitch.
The USA has seen its prominent young players shine in the top domestic soccer leagues in the world, creating a narrative of a potential “golden generation” set to deliver a signature moment in a home World Cup. Mauricio Pochettino is a well-traveled manager who has overseen promiment clubs like Tottenham, PSG and Chelsea. But perhaps what hurts Mexico soccer fans most is that New York’s MetLife Stadium was chosen as the site for the 2026 World Cup final over the famed Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
Aguirre providing some managerial stability was the first step to fixing the problem. He has largely been the same from a results standpoint (17-3-7 in first stint, 19-7-6 in second stint, 15-8-4 so far in this current stint) but he has overseen Gold Cup victories in 2023 and 2025. He led Mexico to its first CONCACAF Nations League title in 2025. Aguirre has given some prominent players like Raul Jimenez, Jesus Gallardo and Cesar Montes bigger roles but has also injected new talent like goalkeeper Raul Rangel, Erik Lira, Brian Gutierrez and Obed Vargas. The introduction of up-and-coming players has pushed the veterans to a new level, and Mexico might be playing its best soccer at the perfect time.
Strong results heading into the tournament
After winning the Gold Cup final 2-1 over USA in Houston, Mexico spiraled a bit on the international front. The team did not win any of its next six friendlies, drawing four times and losing twice with the second setback coming against Paraguay in November. Paraguay was 39th in the FIFA rankings at the time of that match, 25 spots below Mexico. However, the break did Mexico wonders.
El Tri are unbeaten in 2026, winning four games and drawing two ahead of friendlies against Australia and Serbia prior to the World Cup. They have allowed just one goal over these six games, and that was in a 1-1 draw against Belgium in Chicago. They also have a scoreless draw against Portugal on their resume in this stretch. Mexico have tested themselves since the Gold Cup and while the early returns were poor, the 2026 results are exactly what a fan would be looking for ahead of a major tournament.
A tough(ish) bracket
It’s not all rosy for Mexico going into the World Cup. The co-hosts didn’t get the most favorable group pairing, drawing South Africa, South Korea and the Czech Republic. South Africa and Mexico opened the 2010 World Cup when South Africa were hosts, drawing 1-1. Of course, the teams are vastly different from that tournament and South Africa has not been good leading up to the World Cup. South Korea made the knockout round in 2022 and drew 2-2 with Mexico in a 2025 friendly. The Czechs have usually been a solid outfit, though they often don’t measure up against the top tier of contenders. They have had a mixed run of results leading into the competition. Mexico is favored to win the group because it’ll play all its matches at home but that’s likely the only reason. The -140 price point isn’t as appealing as most soccer fans would like it to be but it’s unlikely to improve after the first match, where Mexico are -270 on the 90-minute money line against South Africa.
Mexico best bets for World Cup 2026
The organizers clearly believe Mexico will win Group A, because the Round of 32 match for the Group A winner is taking place at the Azteca in Mexico City, while the runner-up has to go Inglewood, Calif. The Round of 16 match for the Group A winner (should that team win in the Round of 32) is also taking place at the Azteca. The Group A runner-up would play in Houston in the Round of 16 should they get past the Group B runner-up in the Round of 32. The Group A winner would play a third-place team from the group stage in the Round of 32. Basically, there are a lot of incentives for Mexico to win Group A.
Mexico are -140 favorites to win Group A, and I think it’s worth rolling with that as a wager. Getting -150 odds to make the Round of 16 playing against a third-place team from the group stage at the Azteca seems like a steal, and I think most Mexico soccer fans would say this is the expectation for this team in this competition.
If Mexico were to make the Round of 16 after winning Group A, it would have another match at the Azteca for the chance to go to the quarterfinal round. That would likely come against the Group L winner, who would also be playing a third-place team from the group stage in the Round of 32. The Group L winner is most likely England, though Croatia could sneak into the top spot. England have been runners-up at the last two Euros and made the quarterfinal round in 2022 after finishing fourth in 2018.
Mexico would be a sizable underdog against England, even in a home knockout match. El Tri would likely still be an underdog if Croatia were to be the opponent but the line would be much closer. A Round of 16 appearance seems right for this team, and I’d wait to see who the opponent would be before making any further wagers on Mexico in the knockout stage.
