Everyone loves seeing a Cinderella team make an unlikely tournament run, and the World Cup provides glass slippers nearly every time. Most World Cups have had at least one unexpected semifinalist, such as Morocco in 2022, when the Atlas Lions became the first African team to reach the World Cup semis.
Sometimes those surprises are completely out of nowhere (2002 Turkey, 1994 Sweden and Bulgaria), and sometimes they’re on-the-rise teams that live up to their talent (2018 Belgium, 2006 Portugal).
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First, a few ground rules. Teams can’t be Cinderellas if …
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They made the semifinals of the previous tournament. Sorry, Croatia and Morocco.
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They’ve won a World Cup. Uruguay, you’re off the list. And don’t even think about trying to tout four-time winner Germany as a sleeper.
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They have the world’s best striker and one of the best midfielders, and everyone expects them to make a deep run even though they haven’t made a World Cup in 28 years. Maybe that’s a little specific to Norway, but I’m not jumping on the overloaded bandwagon.
With that said, here are the teams I think could make a surprising run to at least the quarterfinals, which is also worth keeping in mind if you’re filling out your picks in Yahoo’s Soccer Pick ‘em with FOX One game.
Colombia might be too good for this list, but I’ll start here, because Los Cafeteros have as much offensive upside as any team outside the top half dozen favorites. Bayern Munich’s Luis Diaz cuts in from the left as well as anyone in the world, and he’s balanced by Benfica’s Richard Rios and Palmeiras’ Jhon Arias charging from the right. Pulling the strings is the ageless James Rodriguez (he’s actually 34), who led CONMEBOL qualifying with seven assists and added three goals.
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Facing Portugal in the group finale at what will be a raucous Miami Stadium, Colombia has a great chance to win the group, play a third-place team in the round of 32, then get the winner of a relatively weak Group B or a third-place team in the round of 16. The quarterfinals are the expectation for the 2024 Copa America runner-up.
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Ecuador is more of a traditional Cinderella, having never won a World Cup knockout game and only reaching the knockout stage once before, losing to England in the 2006 round of 16. La Tri is built on a defense that conceded a record-low five goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers, with a star-studded back line that includes Willian Pacho (PSG), Piero Hincapie (Arsenal) and Pervis Estupiñán (Milan). Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo controls the midfield ahead of them, giving Ecuador one of the strongest spines at the tournament.
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Ecuador will be tested in Group E, but I don’t think Germany has as high a ceiling as usual, and Ivory Coast’s attacking talent wasn’t clicking in qualifying. The group winner faces a third-place team in the round of 32, and the runner-up faces the Group I runner-up (likely Senegal or Norway). If Ecuador finds a bit of offense to go with 36-year-old Enner Valencia, a run to the quarters could easily be in the cards.
(Robin Alam/ISI Photos via Getty Images)
Senegal
After finishing runner-up at the 2002 Cup of Nations, Senegal made its World Cup debut that year and was the darling of the tournament, upsetting defending champion France in the opener and reaching the quarterfinals before losing to Turkey in extra time. Twenty-four years later, Senegal again faces France in the opener after (officially) finishing as Cup of Nations runner-up earlier in the year. This Senegal team is coached by Pape Thiaw, who was on that 2002 team, and he’s developed a lethally quick counterattack that was on display against the United States last week.
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Sadio Mané leads a fluid attack that’s built on a solid midfield, and former Chelsea defender Kalidou Koulibaly (now with Al-Hilal) helms a stingy defense that allowed three goals in 10 qualifiers and two goals in seven games at Cup of Nations earlier this year. With loads of experience at top club and international levels, the Lions of Teranga are poised to replicate their 2002 march to the quarters.
Even without Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma and Monaco’s Takumi Minamino (both injured), Japan has plenty of Europe-based players who can execute the quick, pressing style of head coach Hajime Moriyasu, who has been there since 2018. Japan’s aggressive play led to eight wins by at least four goals in 16 qualifiers, and while World Cup opposition will be tougher on the whole, that hasn’t fazed Japan recently.
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Four years ago, Japan beat Spain and Germany in the group stage, and in the past year, Samurai Blue has won friendlies against Brazil and England. They could easily do the same against Netherlands to win Group F and chart a wide-open quarterfinal path against two group runners-up.
With a third of the World Cup field, the numbers suggest Europe is best-positioned to have someone unexpected make a deep run. Switzerland tops my list because of steady recent accomplishments and a favorable draw. The Swiss have made the knockout stage at three straight World Cups, and they return 18 players from those teams. They’ve also made the quarterfinals at two straight EUROs and were unfortunate to be eliminated on penalties by England two years ago.
Drawn with host nation Canada, Switzerland is the best team in Group B and should take first place and the Round-of-32 matchup with a third-place team, setting up a great chance to reach the World Cup quarters for the first time since hosting in 1954.
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Türkiye
Türkiye is also drawn with a host nation, alongside the United States in Group D. The Turks beat the U.S. 2-1 last June behind a goal from Real Madrid’s Arda Güler, who pairs with fellow 21-year-old Kenan Yildiz (Juventus) to give Türkiye as good a pair of youngsters as anyone in the tournament has.
Türkiye hadn’t made a World Cup since taking third in 2002, but did reach the EURO 2024 quarterfinals, often looking worthy of a deeper run. With a bit more consistency and discipline to go with the undeniable individual talent, Türkiye could again go far at a World Cup.
United States
Host nations often overachieve at World Cups (see: 2002 South Korea), so all three of Canada, Mexico and the United States have to be considered sleepers capable of reaching the quarterfinals or beyond. As seeded teams, all three are in groups without a traditional power, so failing to advance would be an utter disaster.
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The United States showed its upside in a 3-2 friendly win over Senegal on May 31, as Christian Pulisic ran rampant, Sergiño Dest marauded forward, and both Ricardo Pepi and Folarin Balogun looked worthy of starting at the nine position. An attack like that should generate points against defensive-minded Paraguay and Australia to put the U.S. in good knockout position.
Mexico
Mexico’s road to the World Cup has been filled with injuries and question marks, and the answer just might be 17-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora, who has been linked with Real Madrid and will be Mexico’s youngest-ever World Cup player. If head coach Javier Aguirre can figure out how to play “brothers” Santiago Giménez and Rául Jiménez, Mexico has firepower up top, and the defense may finally be getting healthy at the right time. Playing in the heat and elevation at home, El Tri could match its feat as host in 1970 and 1986: reaching the quarterfinals.
Canada
Canada’s chances of reaching the quarterfinals are lower than its two co-hosts, and health will play a key role. When healthy, left back Alphonso Davies has been the best player in Concacaf, and center back Moise Bombito is one of the region’s best center backs. If either or both can regain full fitness, they’ll fill out a team that has dangerous counterattackers like Jonathan David and Tajon Buchanan, capable of riding homefield advantage well into July.
