Giannis Antetokounmpo is set to become a member of the Miami Heat. It’s still surreal to type, considering Giannis’ long history with the Bucks (and the city of Milwaukee) and Miami’s recent pursuits of no-doubt-about-it superstars coming up short. Even during this cycle, there seemed to be real smoke behind the Boston Celtics landing Giannis for a package headlined by Jaylen Brown.
(As a brief aside; whew, buddy, am I intrigued by what Brown’s offseason is going to look like. The Athletic’s Jon Krawczynski noted that the Timberwolves had discussions with the Celtics about Brown before ultimately landing LaMelo Ball, and Brown has been loosely linked to teams like the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets. We’re either getting another blockbuster this offseason, or an incredible amount of fence-mending.)
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Ultimately, the Heat were able to land their whale. They had to empty the proverbial clip to do it — Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakučionis, three first-round picks (including this year’s selection, Nate Ament), a pick swap, and a second rounder — but they clearly felt it was worth it with a guy like Giannis on the table.
While last season was an injury-plagued mess for the Bucks, it’s worth remembering just how dominant Giannis still is. In just 28.9 minutes per contest, he averaged 27.6 points (65/33/65 splits, a career-best 65.8 true shooting), 9.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists. The list of downhill threats in his class can be counted on one hand. And when engaged, he can still be a rangy defender that can create havoc at a high level.
Landing the superstar is the hard part, and the Heat have done that. Their next job is to parlay this acquisition into building a legitimate contender — a tall task, but not an impossible one.
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It’s fair to say they have some pretty big questions to answer before the season starts. Let’s talk through some of them, while examining some potential answers.
The Big One: How will the Giannis Antetokounmpo-Bam Adebayo pairing function offensively?
Within the context of this piece, I don’t think too much ink needs to be spilled about the defense. Bam Adebayo is one of the best, most versatile defenders we have on the planet. With all due respect to the versions of Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez that Giannis played with in Milwaukee, Giannis hasn’t had a defensive partner quite like this because of the intersection of size and scheme versatility.
Whether the Heat utilize drop coverage or switching as their base, it’s not hard to envision how Adebayo and Giannis could relieve pressure for one another. Heck, this could be a year where we see more of Adebayo operating at the level of screens if Giannis gets back to peak roaming.
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The offensive side is where the fit could be shaky.
On the surface, there’s an immediate question about the shooting. Aside from a three-year run in his mid-20s (4.0 attempts from 2019-2021), Giannis has never been even a moderate-volume 3-point threat, and that’s before getting into the inefficiency.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo will be formidable together on defense, but what about on offense? (Photo by Tomas Diniz Santos/Getty Images)
(Tomas Diniz Santos via Getty Images)
Adebayo dipped his toes in the 3-point waters in 2024-25 (2.8 attempts, 35.7%), then fully hopped in last season (5.5 attempts, 31.8%) as the Heat drastically shifted their offensive approach. It’s fair to say that neither player will draw strong closeouts on the perimeter.
The shooting question is a fair one; the spacing question is where I’m more optimistic.
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The loudest part of Miami’s offensive shift from last season was the massive decrease in on-ball and off-ball screening. Tied to that, though, was Miami ramping up its cutting (and relocations paired with that) and toggling through different spacing alignments.
Of note, per Second Spectrum: only three teams (Hornets, 76ers, Rockets) had a player in the dunker spot on a higher rate of their pick-and-roll possessions than the Heat. Some of that was plopping Adebayo or Ware in the dunker while the other was being utilized as a screener, but a lot of it was a result of the cutting and relocating baked into their system.
Also of note: because of the way the Heat spaced the floor, they saw a help defender on 58.7% of their drives last season. Not only was that the lowest clip in the league, it was nearly 10 percentage points lower than second place (Golden State, 68%). If the Heat maintain similar spacing and cutting principles this year, Giannis should fit pretty well.
As mentioned earlier, he’s one of the league’s best drivers. Among players to log at least 300 drives last season, no player generated points on a per-possession basis like Giannis did (1.26). And to the earlier help point, Giannis saw a help defender on over 71% of his drives – much higher than Miami’s rate.
There will be clear-a-side isolations and post-ups for Giannis; even in an injury-plagued year, the Bucks generated well over a point per possession on those play types, with Giannis seeing the highest rate of double teams among players to log 150 of either one.
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His own force, plus the attention he draws, should open up dump-down or lob opportunities for Adebayo if he’s down there, or cleaner catch-and-shoot, catch-and-drive, or catch-and-flow (secondary handoffs) opportunities if he’s spaced. If teams can’t send the same help … good freakin’ luck.
I’m pretty intrigued by what the Giannis-Adebayo ball screens will look like, and how often we’ll see them. The Giannis-led ball screens have been fruitful for years — the Bucks generated 1.07 points per trip featuring a Giannis ball screen, 6th among 101 players to receive at least 1,500 on-ball picks over the last three seasons — but it’s noteworthy that he formed successful partnerships with Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis (also a Heatle), and Myles Turner while doing it.
If you’re defending Giannis and Adebayo with your 4 & 5 respectively, you may be handing an unfavorable matchup to Giannis in space. If there’s any sort of cross-matching — teams haven’t been shy about putting wings on Adebayo, for example — you risk further compromising your defensive shell in that setup.
What kind of shooters should the Heat target?
It’s easy to tap the “grab some shooters” button for any team, especially with one that plans to feature Giannis in a real way. But I’m here to warn you, as rudimentary as this may sound, that adding standstill threats won’t get the job done when it matters.
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Ideally, you want guards who can shoot off movement. Not only should that open up the playbook for off-ball goodness — bring back the Wayne Ellington Floppy era! — but there’s inverted utility as well. During his tenure in Milwaukee, Giannis-led ball screens with guys like Pat Connaughton and, more recently, AJ Green screening for him were tough to deal with.
Defenses don’t want to switch those actions, lest they give Giannis a favorable matchup to attack. Going with a show-and-recover or an outright trap is generally too easy for Giannis to see over. In general, committing two to Giannis in that setup leads to a scrambling defense that often generates open 3s.
Depending on what happens with Norm Powell and Andrew Wiggins — Powell seems more likely to depart than return, while Wiggins has a $30.1 million player option that he could opt into, or opt out and agree to a multi-year deal with a lower per-year number — I’d at least call the Thunder and see if anything is workable for Isaiah Joe.
Across the last three seasons, no guard has taken more shots out of slips (80) than Joe, both a testament to OKC’s willingness to use its guards as screeners, and Joe’s comfort shooting out of that setup. Joe’s contract is a manageable one, with him set to make $11.3 million this season and the following one (team option).
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Among the current group of unrestricted free agents that should be MLE-gettable, I would imagine Tim Hardaway Jr. would be near the top of the list. He’s coming off the best 3-point shooting season of his career (40.7% on 6.9 attempts), and has the movement skills required to fill spaces within Miami’s context while also pairing well with Giannis (or Bam, for that matter) when the Heat go to inverted looks.
Anfernee Simons is another name that’s been linked to the Heat, and he certainly fits the bill as a career 38.1% shooter from deep on high volume (6.6 attempts). I’m a little fuzzier on his screening (or slipping) usage, but that could be offset by his utility as a pull-up threat.
Other thoughts
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Barring foul trouble or injury, Miami’s most important minutes will feature Giannis and Adebayo on the floor together. I do wonder how often we’ll see Giannis at the 5. It’s a setup that should maximize his utility offensively, but Miami would need to have the right personnel to pull it off with any consistency. As much as the Heat have been willing to have Pelle Larsson guard up, it’d be lovely if they didn’t have to do that.
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Somewhat tied to that, surely Khris Middleton is a Heat target. There’s obvious history between him and Giannis thanks to their shared time in Milwaukee. But to the earlier point, having a 6-7 guy that can fill some minutes at the 4 would help unlock single-big lineups for the Heat. He certainly isn’t the All-Star version of himself at this stage, but he can still shoot, operate from the mid-post, and run some empty-side ball screens for you.
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I wonder how often Erik Spoelstra taps the zone button with Giannis on the floor. Per Second Spectrum, Giannis was on the floor for 1,025 zone possessions dating back to the 2013-14 season. The Heat logged a league-leading 1,172 last season. The Heat sure do love a press-to-zone look; could they sprinkle in a similar setup with Giannis up top? I’d like to see it.
