Julia Letlow holds a narrow lead over John Fleming heading into Saturday’s Republican U.S. Senate runoff in Louisiana, according to a new Quantus Insights poll that shows the race remains within the margin of error and likely will come down to turnout.
The June 23-24 survey of 770 likely runoff voters found Letlow leading Fleming 51.5% to 48.5% on the firm two-way ballot. While the three-point edge falls inside the poll’s margin of error, the survey suggests Letlow enters the final stretch with a slight advantage.
Letlow also led at every stage of the survey. On the initial ballot, she received 46.4% support compared to Fleming’s 43.3%, with about one in 10 voters undecided. After assigning leaners, Letlow’s lead stood at 48.1% to 45.3%, with 6.7% still uncommitted. Among voters who made a firm choice, her advantage reached 51.5% to 48.5%.
The poll found Letlow’s lead remained consistent across multiple testing models, including likely voter screens, full-completes-only analysis, non-response adjustment, and an even split of undecided voters, with her advantage consistently falling between two and three percentage points.
Regional support continues to define the race.
Letlow dominates in the New Orleans media market, leads in Baton Rouge, and holds a double-digit advantage in Monroe. Fleming’s strongest support comes from Alexandria, Lake Charles, and Lafayette, where he leads decisively in some areas.
SEE MORE: Louisiana Senate Runoff: Letlow Leads, but Fleming Has a Path
Rather than one statewide electorate moving in the same direction, the poll found a divided Republican runoff electorate, with each candidate drawing strength from different political regions of Louisiana.
President Donald Trump’s endorsement remains one of the biggest factors shaping the race, though the survey suggests it has strengthened both candidates’ coalitions rather than deciding the contest.
About 26% of voters said they already preferred Letlow before Trump’s endorsement, while another 19% said the president’s backing moved them toward her.
Fleming also has a strong base. About 24% of voters said they already supported him, while another 19% said his conservative record in Congress and service in the Trump administration mattered more than Trump’s endorsement.
The survey found attitudes toward Trump’s endorsement were far more predictive of vote choice than ordinary demographics. Even so, the endorsement appears to have sharpened the divide rather than producing a decisive shift, serving as a seal of approval for Letlow supporters while reinforcing Fleming’s base.
One potential warning sign for Letlow is early voting.
Roughly one-third of the electorate had already cast ballots while the survey was being conducted. Among those voters, Fleming held a narrow 51.1% to 48.9% advantage.
Letlow’s lead comes from voters who still plan to cast ballots on Election Day. Among that group, she led 53.1% to 46.9%.
If Election Day turnout matches expectations, the poll suggests Letlow is positioned to win. If her supporters fail to show up in sufficient numbers, the race could tighten quickly.
After leaners are assigned, fewer than 7% of voters remain undecided. Those voters are concentrated heavily in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge media markets, where Letlow already holds an advantage.
With both candidates already well known to Republican voters, the survey suggests the race is no longer about persuading voters but mobilizing them to cast ballots.
The poll concludes that Letlow enters the final days with a slight edge, while Fleming maintains an advantage among votes already cast. With geography, Trump’s endorsement, and turnout all shaping the contest, the Louisiana runoff is likely to be decided by whichever campaign gets more supporters to the polls on Saturday.
