Whether President Donald Trump believed his persistently fallacious claims about the Iran War, or simply expected his supporters to believe them, is unclear. In any case, most Americans recognize that his campaign—illegal aggression that misfired badly, failing to break the Tehran regime while disrupting global energy markets and destabilizing the Middle East—has been a disaster.
Indeed, Iran proved what many had long suspected, that it could block the Strait of Hormuz and thereby hold its U.S.-backed neighbors and much of the industrialized world hostage. The president’s maximalist demands exceed his minimalist achievements, frustrating his attempt to negotiate an end to the conflict. Unhelpful is his choice of chief negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who are not only beholden to Israel, but also ignorant of Iran, nuclear issues, and diplomacy. Thus, despite Trump’s repeated claims that Tehran’s surrender is near, the conflict, and resulting economic damage, continue.
Yet rather than drop his demand that the new, more nationalistic and hardline Iranian leadership welcome him as a de facto conqueror, Trump has continued to issue maximalist demands, effectively sustaining the conflict. Last week he expanded his ambitions even further, suggesting that he would make peace only if a gaggle of Muslim states recognized Israel. “If they don’t sign to join Abraham Accords, I’m not sure we should make the deal,” he said. In addition to the Gulf kingdoms, which he had long pressured to legitimize Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s extremist government, he named Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey (even though the latter three already recognize Israel). Nothing was expected of Israel, which would continue to receive U.S. arms and money to occupy Palestinian lands and kill Palestinian and other Arab civilians.
His latest expostulations were not well received. He believes that “those countries owe it to us,” but they feel very differently. Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argued that the Gulf states are disappointed in Washington and especially the administration: “While they’re careful not to say it explicitly, they feel the United States was very motivated to protect Israel and not very motivated to protect them.” Apparently, they only just noticed what has long been obvious. To some of them, Israel’s murderous campaign to dominate the region looks at least as dangerous as Iran’s ambitions.
In fact, the so-called Abraham Accords, long touted as a major achievement from Trump’s first term, are a pious fraud. Though depicted as a kind of peace deal, they have nothing to do with peace, since none of the participants—so far Bahrain, Kazakhstan, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates (Sudan signed on but fell into civil war before ratifying the agreement)—have been at war with Israel.
Nor has the lack of Israeli embassies across the Persian Gulf and North Africa prevented any nation from engaging in back-channel security cooperation. To the contrary, fear of Iran proved to be a powerful glue, linking nations publicly at odds. Several Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, which has long been expected to join, have collaborated informally with Israel on the basis of a shared antagonism to the Islamic Republic. Kuwait and Qatar have also not been on the verge of conflict with Israel. Ironically, forcing relations into the open would likely increase domestic public opposition to Israeli ties within these Arab countries, given the Netanyahu government’s recent depredations.
Thus, Trump’s purposes were not peace, but something much more sinister. The first was to effectively force Arab states to drop their commitment to a Palestinian state. In 2002, members of the Arab League adopted the Arab Peace Initiative. Proposed by Riyadh, the measure offered recognition to Israel in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza. The Abraham Accords require the former while dropping the latter demand, leaving Palestinians akin to Helots in ancient Sparta.
Of course, professed concern by Arab elites over Palestinians living under a violent and brutal occupation is often pro forma. However, public opinion forces even the most cynical authoritarians in such nations to act as if they care about the victims of Israel’s increasingly repressive policy. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who not only murders but dismembers his critics, explained that 95 percent of his people opposed accepting Israel. Trump expects Riyadh and other states to abandon even the pretense that Palestinians are human beings who deserve the same respect as others.
Moreover, expanding the Abraham Accords would act as a Hail Mary political pass to Netanyahu, who faces a difficult reelection campaign. It would both offer a dramatic success to the Israeli prime minister and act as a de facto endorsement by the American president. Indeed, Trump appears to believe his ability to shift votes is as great in Israel as in U.S. primary contests.
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Even Arab governments that were willing to covertly cooperate with Israel in the past are reluctant to do so today, let alone publicly embrace the radical and violent ethno-religious coalition that controls Israel. The Netanyahu government is ostentatiously seeking regional hegemony, devastating Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon, striking Hamas figures in Qatar, an American ally, and wrecking Iran. Joining the Abraham Accords would be seen as an endorsement of such activities or, even worse, submission to Israel.
The only good news is that Trump was bluffing. Despite his dictatorial tone, he apparently has moved on, presumably realizing that none of the governments will comply. They see little benefit in risking public unrest to fulfill Trump’s fantasies. Indeed, prolonging the war to pressure disparate Muslim states to embrace Israel could risk the survival of the Gulf states, which would almost certainly find their energy facilities and other civilian operations, such as desalination plants, under fire by Iran. Moreover, continued international instability and higher energy prices would fuel antagonism toward the administration. Despite his claim to be indifferent to the upcoming midterm elections, Trump presumably is more concerned about his future than that of Netanyahu.
Nevertheless, merely raising the issue increased uncertainty about his intentions, thereby undermining the administration’s efforts to end the war. His bizarre demand further erodes confidence in Washington, and especially the White House. Expanding the Abraham Accords provides no meaningful benefit to America. Instead of working to enhance Netanyahu’s prestige, Trump should focus on ending his disastrous war on Iran. Any America First policy should begin with disengaging politically and especially militarily from the Middle East.
