Analysis
DraftKings/Caesar’s. Nolan McLean has stayed under this hits line in 10/13 games this season. After a shaky three game stretch in late May, he’s found his form over his last two games (11 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs). The Mets rookie’s phenomenal stuff leads to inefficiencies, as he averages 4.03 pitches per plate appearance (16th percentile amongst qualified starters). That, coupled with a 9% walk rate actually helps our case with this prop – McLean only allows a hit every 5.6 batter faced, or every 22.7 pitches thrown. And I think the books are overvaluing the Braves offense after their blistering start. Atlanta is hitting .235 as a team against righties over the last month, and are without both Drake Baldwin and Ronald Acuna Jr.
