When it comes to the current version of Max Scherzer, we could run with a sports cliché like “father time is undefeated,” or choose a movie reference, such as “everything ends badly, or else it wouldn’t end.” And though I have no doubt his competitive fire and pitching guile will keep him on the mound for the time being, the end is nigh for the 41-year-old future Hall of Famer.
The questions about his future are inevitable.
The latest example of Scherzer fighting a losing battle would be his return from injury on Wednesday night. He was last on an MLB mound April 24, allowing seven runs in 2 ⅓ innings, before going on the IL to deal with injuries to his ankle, forearm and thumb. He made a few rehab starts and then returned to the rotation to face the Phillies.
Scherzer gave up five runs on five hits and three walks in 3 ⅓ innings. He coughed up two home runs. Every number this season is ugly. He’s 1-4 with a 10.23 ERA. He has a 1.73 WHIP. He’s in the fifth percentile in xERA, 26th in fastball velocity — formerly one of his calling cards — fourth percentile in whiff%. On and on we could go. How about this one: the expected batting average against Scherzer this season is .272, while the expected slugging percentage is .519. The league averages are .242 and .395, respectively. He’s making his opponents look like All-Stars.
It’s a small sample of six starts, but he’s been one of the very worst pitchers in baseball.
It feels like I’m piling on here and that’s not what I want to do. It’s been nearly two decades of Scherzer being great and the only discussions around him on the mound have generally revolved around where he ranks among the best pitchers in baseball for much of that. He struck out his 3,500th career batter Wednesday night, for example.
He finished the game with 3,503 career strikeouts, putting him just six behind Walter Johnson. He’s currently 11th all-time behind eight Hall of Famers, Roger Clemens and Justin Verlander. The three-time Cy Young winner is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, no doubt.
Again, though, age comes for everyone in sports and in life in general — it just comes much earlier in sports than in almost any other occupation. For Scherzer, the time might be after another start or two. The Blue Jays have Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease (who also returned from injury this week) as rotation mainstays. The youngster Trey Yesavage isn’t going anywhere. Patrick Corbin’s pedigree isn’t what Scherzer’s is, but through 12 starts and a 4.55 ERA (98 ERA+), he’s pretty clearly more effective than Scherzer in 2026.
That puts Scherzer fifth.
Shane Bieber is working back from an elbow injury and is making his fourth minor-league rehab start on Thursday with the expectation that he could work up to 70-75 pitches. He could be ready to return to the rotation late next week or the week after.
When Bieber comes back, unless one of the other starters goes down, Scherzer should be the one squeezed out of the rotation, not Corbin.
The Blue Jays, of course, aren’t ready to commit to that just yet.
“You want to try to see what it looks like when he gets some consistent work and kind of evaluate it then,” manager John Schneider said (via The Athletic). “I think he’s earned that. I think that’s the reason why we signed him back. You don’t make any knee-jerk reactions after an outing after a month plus off.”
That’s fair. And Scherzer will get another chance before Bieber is ready to return to the rotation. It just feels like we’re watching things wind down here. Better to eject now than watch it all end badly.
