The study found that 70.8 per cent of users ended the study period in the red. The top 1 per cent of traders captured 84 per cent of all gains. The median user lost US$2 overall, across trades from November 2022 to March 2026.
Gains captured by top 1%
84%
Source: Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau, “Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket,” SSRN, March 2026. Study covers 1.4 million users, US$20 billion in volume, Nov 2022 – Mar 2026.
What clients will be able to do
The new app, Wealthsimple Predict, is powered by Kalshi, a US-based prediction market platform. A beta version is already running. The full launch is set for summer 2026.
How it works: clients buy contracts priced under $1. Each contract represents a position on whether a specified outcome will occur. A correct call pays out on every contract held.
Wealthsimple is limiting the product to economic, financial, and climate events such as Bank of Canada rate decisions, inflation data, climate benchmarks, and similar. Sports and politics are excluded.
That scope mirrors the model used by Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. – the only CIRO-authorized firm offering event contracts to Canadian clients before Wealthsimple.
